Risk-based decision-making improves plug and abandonment campaigns in mature offshore fields

A practical four-gate framework helps P&A teams verify barriers, assess well access, define contingencies, and confirm technology and regulatory readiness.

Key highlights:

  • Qualify permanent barriers using current evidence rather than cost assumptions or incomplete historical records.

  • Assess whether tubulars and completion equipment can actually be accessed and recovered as planned.

  • Define technical limits and contingency triggers before offshore work begins.

  • Confirm that selected technologies produce evidence acceptable for the intended barrier decision and regulatory framework.

  • Resolve key uncertainties before committing a rig or vessel to improve safety and execution efficiency.

By Maxim Kostrov, Independent Consultant

 

More offshore assets are entering late life, decommissioning activity is increasing and abandonment costs remain under pressure. At the same time, many mature wells were drilled decades ago. Records may be incomplete, and actual well conditions may no longer match the assumptions in the original files.

For a plug and abandonment (P&A) team, this makes decision quality as important as execution quality. A practical risk-based program can be organized around four decision gates.

Decision gate

Question before commitment

Trigger to change course

Barrier qualification

Is the proposed permanent barrier supported by current evidence?

Barrier performance cannot be demonstrated.

Well access

Can the completion and casing actually be accessed and recovered as planned?

Recovery or intervention cannot proceed as planned.

Contingency activation

What evidence or technical limit will trigger a change of course?

A pre-agreed technical limit is reached.

Technology and regulatory readiness

Does the selected method produce evidence strong enough for the intended barrier decision?

Evidence is insufficient for the intended barrier decision.

 

1. Barrier qualification

Barrier qualification should be based on evidence, not on the lowest-cost assumption. A mature well may appear to offer several options, including existing cement, a natural formation barrier such as creeping shale, or a new cement placement after casing recovery. Each option can change the amount of intervention required.

In one mature offshore abandonment campaign, logging showed shale movement behind casing. The result was encouraging, but the available evidence was not strong enough to qualify the interval as the long-term barrier assumed in the base plan. The campaign moved to a contingency design instead of trying to defend an assumption that could not be verified.

2. Well access

Access creates a different uncertainty. Historical completion drawings may show what was installed, but they cannot confirm what can still be moved after years of service. Solids, corrosion, deformed tubulars, degraded completion hardware and restrictions can change the recovery sequence.

In one casing-recovery operation, solids accumulation and mechanical restrictions forced the work into several stages, with additional cutting, cleanup, jacking and reevaluation before the abandonment objective could be achieved.

3. Contingency activation

Thus, contingencies should be designed into the base program, not added after a problem appears. A contingency has little value unless the conditions for using it are defined in advance.

Typical triggers include failure to verify a barrier, repeated inability to move or recover tubulars, unacceptable equipment response, or evidence that no longer supports the proposed barrier solution.

4. Technology and regulatory readiness

Technology should be treated the same way. Through-tubing cement evaluation can reduce uncertainty without first removing large sections of completion or casing. But the question is not whether a tool works in principle. The question is whether the evidence it produces is sufficient for the intended barrier decision and acceptable within the regulatory framework.

On the Norwegian Continental Shelf, permanent barriers must be verifiable. If a new method cannot demonstrate the required performance or equivalence, the campaign needs another path. Therefore, technology selection should start with the decision to be made, not with the tool.

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Verify uncertainty before offshore execution

The most useful P&A data are those that remove uncertainty before a rig or vessel is committed. Barrier history, current logs, access checks, solids and restriction assessment, equipment availability and decision authority should all be clear before offshore execution.

Risk-based execution is not improvisation. It is disciplined preparation for the point at which evidence shows that the base case is no longer the right case. The best P&A programs are not the ones that follow the original plan at any cost. They are the ones that know when, and why, to change course while still delivering a permanent, verifiable barrier system safely and efficiently.

References:

Norwegian Ocean Industry Authority (Havtil), Facilities Regulations §48, Well barriers.

Standard Norge, NORSOK D-010:2021+AC:2024, Well integrity in drilling and well operations.

Vrålstad, T. et al., “Plug & abandonment of offshore wells: Ensuring long-term well integrity and cost-efficiency,” Journal of Petroleum Science and Engineering, 173 (2019), 478-491.

Editor's note:

This article was not submitted on behalf of the author's employer, TotalEnergies. 

About the Author

Maxim Kostrov

Maxim Kostrov

Maxim Kostrov is a drilling and wells manager with TotalEnergies. He has about 20 years of international experience in drilling, completion, well integrity and offshore operations. His career includes service-company and operator roles across Russia, Kazakhstan, France, Angola and Norway.

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