TGS | 4C delivers offshore wind market predictions

TGS | 4C’s latest Global Market Overview of offshore wind prospects predicts record offtake contract awards this year.

There has already been a strong upturn in offtake awards, led by the UK’s recent Allocation Round 7, which led to 8.4 GW of contracts. The year as a whole could deliver 19.6 GW of awards globally, eclipsing the previous high of 19.1 GW in 2024.

While site award activity so far this year has been slow, restricted to Norway’s Utsira Nord (1 GW) fixed offshore wind program, TGS | 4C expect up to 1.7 GW of floating offshore wind projects and 17.4 GW of bottom-fixed projects to be confirmed.

To date in 2026, a combined 280 MW of projects have reached a Commercial Operation Date (COD), but here too the analysts predict a resurgence as the year goes on to 17 GW, which would represent the second-largest volume of CODs ever.

And FIDs should go through on 15.9 GW of projects.

The report also features an analysis of wind turbine failures, predicting more than 30,000 failures out to 2040, with about 50% of them in turbines under 10 MW, and 44% occurring in Europe.

Main underlying causes are component degradation and manufacturing/design/installation issues.

“The Iran war and the resulting oil and gas supply reductions have reminded countries dependent on fossil fuel imports about their energy vulnerabilities,” said Ivar Slengesol, managing director and vp of TGS | 4C. “The offshore wind industry will be looking to see if a renewed focus on energy security will translate into political actions that accelerate site and offtake awards, permitting, and—ultimately—large-scale projects generating renewable energy.”