Exploration holding steady offshore Norway, UK still faces uncertainty

Norway’s offshore production should increase to 4.2 MMboe/d following the startup of seven new field and four brownfield developments, according to a recent Westwood Global Energy Group report.

The projects contain total estimated recoverable reserves of 1.1 Bboe. Equinor’s Johan Castberg project in the Barents Sea is the largest, and it should go online shortly following numerous schedule delays.

The government’s introduction of temporary tax terms in 2020-2022, brought on by the COVID-19 crisis, spurred many of the current developments. However, Westwood only expects three new greenfield projects to be sanctioned in 2025, with combined reserves of about 225 MMboe.

Norway faces declining production later in the decade, although the rate should be slowed through investments in existing facilities, new developments and results from sustained exploration.

At the same time, balancing this activity with supply chain inflation will be critical to safeguarding project economics, Westwood’s analysts believe.

This year the consultants expect 44 exploration wells to be spudded offshore Norway with pre-drill resources of about 3.2 Bboe. Many are deferrals from 2024, due to rig schedules.