Offshore staff
SINGAPORE – Myanmar’s military coup could impact planned upstream offshore investments, according to Wood Mackenzie and Maplecroft.
Wood Mackenzie research associate Saloni Kapoor said: “We estimate that new upstream projects worth US$2 billion up until 2030 are yet to take final investment decision…
“Key developments such as PTTEP’s Block M9 (Zawtika) and Woodside’s Block A-6 account for around 40% of the country’s expected supply until 2030.
“Incremental phases at Zawtika will provide upside to Myanmar’s energy mix, but if A-6 does not progress as planned, an estimated 2 tcf of gas supply is threatened. This supply is critical to make up for declining volumes from legacy fields.”
Wood Mackenzie consulting director Mangesh Patankar added: “Several LNG regas projects in Myanmar, including the existing small-scale terminal operated by CNTIC VPower and the proposed large-scale integrated LNG-to-Power project at Mee Laung Gyaing, are Chinese led.
“We see less impact on these projects from the recent military coup, given China has always engaged with both the military and the Aung San Suu Kyi-led government.
Maplecroft senior analyst Kaho Yu said: “We expect the US to restrict foreign assistance to Myanmar and impose new sanctions on those involved in the coup, particularly military officials and associated entities. Yet, additional sanctions will likely have limited impact because many relevant individuals and entities were already sanctioned by the Trump administration in 2019 over the Rohingya crisis.
“Instead, any new sanctions would make it harder for responsible companies adhering to international best practice to keep operating in Myanmar due to reputational and ESG considerations.
“China’s response reflects that it is taking a ‘wait and see’ approach towards the coup. Beijing has adopted a pragmatic approach towards Myanmar for decades and has been engaging both with the military and the Aung San Suu Kyi-led government. For Beijing, it does not matter who rules Myanmar, as long as those in power are not anti-China.”
02/04/2021
