LONDON – Angola’s crude oil production has declined almost 30% in just six years, from 1.7 MMb/d in 2015 to just shy of 1.2 MMb/d in 2021, according to GlobalData.
The company now expects further decline for the country through to 2025, which is forecast to see about 1.1 MMb/d – despite the multiple expansion projects that are due to come online in the future. However, Angola may see a bit of relief in that marketed gas is at a record high.
According to oil and gas analyst Conor Ward: “Angola has been unable to replicate the level of investment experienced in the early 2010s. While the multiple expansion projects due to come online within the next few years – including Lifua A, B, and C; CLOV Phase 2; and Dalia Phase 3 – will have the capacity to bring an additional 89,000 barrels of crude per day to Angola, they will only be able to temper the decline of the country’s ageing fields for a short period.”
On the other hand, production has been growing at Angola’s LNG plant, which came online in 2013 and is supplied by associated gas. In 2021, marketed gas in Angola reached a new high of 720 MMcf/d, he said.
Ward continued: “Eni’s Northern Gas Complex, which will be the country’s first non-associated gas field, is a pioneering project. Its performance will be observed closely by other companies that are considering developing gas fields in Angola.”
Ward pointed out that one concern is whether European majors, who are currently responsible for over one-third of Angola’s production, will continue to revise their positions based on emerging emissions goals.
He added: “A positive signal is the potential merger between bp and Eni, which will likely enable the companies to streamline operations in Angola and make further investments to grow production. Should this deal go ahead, it is possible that more mergers could occur to unlock stranded resources in the country irrespective of what other European companies may decide to do.”