Wave height volatility threatens offshore wind efficiency

The integration of live environmental data with AI-powered models enhances forecast accuracy, enabling safer, more sustainable offshore wind operations while reducing downtime, fuel use and emissions in a changing climate.
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Aug. 18, 2025
3 min read

Key Highlights

  • Rising sea temperatures and wave height volatility are shrinking operational windows for offshore wind farms.
  • Advanced real-time monitoring systems combined with AI forecasting significantly improve prediction accuracy.
  • A DanTysk wind farm case study illustrates how integrated technology solutions adapt to increasing weather volatility, ensuring safety and operational resilience.
ID 345888174 | Ai © Prostockstudio | Dreamstime.com
wind turbine stands resilient amidst turbulent ocean waves

By Jonas Røstad, Miros

 

As global greenhouse-gas emissions continue to rise and gradually warm the planet, much of this excess heat is being absorbed by oceans. Despite seawater's high heat capacity, long-term data show a steady increase in sea temperatures. While warmer seawater alone poses minimal operational risks, it is causing wider shifts in global weather patterns, which is significantly impacting offshore activities.

Recent data from the Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service (CMEMS) shows a sharp rise in wave height volatility in the North Sea, highlighting how climate change is shrinking the operational windows for offshore wind. Between 2020 and 2022, for example, the frequency of waves over 1.5 m nearly doubled compared to 2018-2019, increasing risks to safety, turbine access and maintenance planning.

© hafenkieker / Adobe Stock 420832066; Courtesy Miros
offshore wind farm during a lightning storm
As the offshore wind sector advances into deeper, more remote waters, this brings increased weather volatility and larger wave heights, increasing the need for precise wave and weather forecasts.

As sites for fixed-bottom wind installations become scarce, the offshore wind sector is advancing into deeper, more remote waters. Furthermore, many future sites are also expected to be floating. These harsher environments bring increased weather volatility and larger wave heights, demanding innovative operational strategies, such as service operation vessels with daughter crafts capable of operating in higher sea states than traditional crew transfer vessels. This shift is increasing the need for precise wave and weather forecasts to ensure safe access and maximize operational uptime.

Case study

The DanTysk wind farm in the German North Sea illustrates the tangible effects of these trends. During the 2022-2023 winter season, wave heights at DanTysk exceeded 1.5 m more than 76% of the time, a significant increase that required swift operational adjustments.

Courtesy Miros
Miros real-time vs Forecast display

Miros' Forecast application visualizes the ocean condition forecast versus measured real-time conditions.

To tackle this challenge, the DanTysk team integrated Miros’ real-time sea state monitoring system with i4sea’s AI forecast platform. This integrated approach benchmarks forecast against accurate real-time measurements on site, and it updates forecasts every 20 minutes. The result is improved accuracy by up to 60% compared to traditional models, providing more dependable, site-specific data. The hyperlocal strategy enables real-time decisions based on live site conditions instead of broad forecasts, leading to safer and more efficient operations during volatile weather.

In a sector where safety, efficiency and sustainability must align, the partnership between i4sea and Miros at the DanTysk wind farm shows how integrated, next-generation technologies are reshaping offshore wind operations, making them more resilient and efficient.

Enhanced forecast precision mitigates risks from high seas and sudden weather shifts, directly improving safety for offshore crews. At the same time, smarter access planning allows for more targeted turbine visits, reducing downtime and optimizing maintenance windows. 

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By avoiding unnecessary vessel deployments, operators can reduce fuel consumption and emissions, which is a crucial step forward in sustainability and ESG performance. Importantly, unlike traditional methods that rely on broad satellite scans or historical sensor data and lack site-specific, real-time accuracy, forecasts are continuously updated with live site data, allowing teams to respond quickly to changing weather and maintain operational resilience.

Key takeaway

By leveraging live environmental data and AI-powered forecasting, developments like DanTysk show how offshore wind can confront these challenges directly, ensuring safer, more efficient, future-ready operations. Real-time site measurements fed into predictive models continuously refine forecast outputs, improving accuracy over both short and medium terms. This localized adjustment is essential as the global offshore wind industry moves into deeper, more remote waters and encounters increasing operational challenges.

About the Author

Jonas Røstad

Jonas Røstad

Jonas Røstad has more than two decades of experience in maritime and measurement industries working with cutting-edge technologies. He has been with Miros since July 2015, serving in various management, director and C-suite positions prior to his current role of chief commercial officer. He is an established thought leader in the marine industry and leads the company’s mission to transform maritime operations by elevating the safety, sustainability and performance of offshore activities through real-time ocean insights.

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