LONDON – Natural gas production in northwest Europe looks set to fall by around 25% from current levels over the next five years, according to GlobalData.
The company’s ‘2019 Northwest Europe Upstream Development Outlook – Surge in New-Build Oil and Gas Project Starts for 2020’ report shows that gas production across the region has fallen over the last two years.
Factors include a lack of major upcoming gas projects and a production phase out at the giant Groningen gas field onshore the Netherlands.
Although gas production offshore Norway and the UK will likely rise over the near term, this could be offset by declines in the Netherlands, Denmark, and Ireland.
Daniel Rogers, Oil and Gas Analyst at GlobalData, said: “Northwest Europe’s oil production is set to rise potentially out to 2023 as major fields ramp up and Johan Castberg production commences.
“For gas, the outlook is less optimistic as the number of large gas projects coming onstream is limited and post 2021 could see dramatic declines in gas production without the addition of future projects.”
The report also foresees the highest level of new project starts since 2017, driven mainly by shallow water subsea developments.
The UK is set for a deepwater return (due to developments west of Shetland).
Rogers said: “Oil-focused developments are set to see a higher proportion of invested capital over the period. This likely reflects the development of upcoming major oil projects and a currently more stabilized oil price environment; whereas gas-focused developments are lacking due, in part, to weak domestic gas prices, as well as gas infrastructure constraints in certain basins.”
GlobalData expects final investment decisions next year on 13 projects, mostly in the UK North Sea.