Douglas-Westwood recently completed a review of oil supply and production in their World Oil Supply Report. It found that the world is using its oil reserves at a rate that will produce an oil supply production peak in 2011, assuming a 2% growth rate. Zero demand growth shifts the peak to 2022. Any increased demand growth will move the peak date forward.
High demand and limited supply could produce another round of oil shocks similar to those experienced in the 1970s. The difference this time will be the permanence of the oil production decline. According to Douglas-Westwood, the present level of 74 MMb/d is unsustainable beyond 2022.
A new forecast predicts that 2% demand growth will produce a production peak in 2011.
Oil will still be available, as much as the world has used in the past, but it will have to be supplemented by other energy sources to meet growing energy demand. This could shift control of the world's oil supplies back to OPEC. According to the report, new mass-produced alternative and fuel-efficient transport systems will be required.
Developing new professionals is a critical issue for the industry. Halliburton has moved to address the problem. The company initiated a program with the American Association of Petroleum Geologists and the Society of Exploration Geo-physicists to pay membership dues for college students wishing to join the organizations. The company is exploring a similar program with the Society of Petroleum Engineers.
"This is an initiative in which everyone participating benefits," said John Gibson, president of Halliburton Energy. "Students will have access to professional organizations that can provide them with continuing education and networking opportunities, and we will have access to students who are pursuing formal education in areas in which we will need help in the future."
The program applies to both domestic and international students. Dues in the organizations range from $12.50 to $20 per student. Jeff Donnellan, vice president of Halliburton Energy Services, estimates the annual cost will be $125,000 to $250,000.
IHS Energy Group released its Gulf of Mexico Deepwater Production Performance Study, an analysis of 45 GoM fields in depths greater than 1,000 ft. The study is designed to help E&P companies make informed decisions about production optimization or entry into the GoM market.
Using a suite of IHS software, analysts determined the original hydrocarbon volumes in place, expected ultimate-recoverable volume, recovery schedule, drainage areas, decline rates, plateau periods, elapsed time for water break-through, abandonment conditions, and reservoir drive mechanism for numerous deepwater reservoirs. Conclusions from the study of nearly 400 completions from 337 wells include:
- Of the 45 fields studied, 41 are active with a median field size of four active wells
- Flow rates per completion were measured for average production and drainage radius
- Of 364 completions, many completions were not declining, and 102 were inactive. Of the 132 active wells with decline, annual decline rates had a median value of 66%, but ranged from 15% to 100%.
West Greenland survey
TGS-Nopec is acquiring 6,100 km of non-exclusive 2D data off West Greenland. The program infills earlier surveys in the area and tests for new hydrocarbon provinces like the areas west of Kap Farvel and Disco Island.
The vessel M/V Polshkov, under charter to TGS-Nopec, is acquiring the survey. Data processing will be performed by the company's center in Bedford, England. Acquisition began in mid-July and will be complete in September.
WesternGeco has added cluster computing to enhance its IBM SP2 mainframe power in the London computing center. The new system provides 5-Teraflops of computing power, according to John Close, data processing manger for WesternGeco. Close says that Kirchoff-based prestack time migration is the primary driver behind the expansion. Oil operators now require the processing on all new data sets. General seismic processing will be implemented on the company's clusters by the end of 2002, with a full conversion to clustered computers within the next 12 months.
The new system uses 2,500 nodes (5,000 Intel Xeon procesors) running under Linux. This scalable configuration will allow flexibility and expansion of computing power as demand grows. Rick Skett, director for Intel UK and Ireland, suggested that the initial cluster performance could be enhanced 20-30% more through software hyper-threading that is possible with the Xeon chip.
VoxelVision released new GIGAviz software, which permits visualization of data volumes using clustered PC equipment. The software is based on a client-server model where visualization is computed on the PC-cluster and only the final image is sent to the user's workstation or PC.
Internet connections are possible, so the user's distance from the server is irrelevant. The company claims its software brings flexibility and power to seismic 3D interpretation and visualization.
Schlumberger Information Solutions and Environmental Systems Research Institute have announced an Internet-compliant implementation of ESRI's geographic information system (GIS) software on Indigopool.com. The installation integrates GIS software with the company's acquisition and divestiture technology.
It combines the advanced mapping capabilities of ESRI's ArcIMS with its spatial database engine, ArcSDE, server software. This enables proprietary data to be interactively incorporated into maps.
The combination gives clients fast and easy access to a broad range of data. Clients can intuitively move between map-based data, asset catalogs, and exploration and production data rooms.