Offshore staff
LONDON – Westwood forecasts total subsea vessel operations and hardware expenditure globally of $152 billion during 2019-2023, in a new report.
The recovery in thesubsea market, first evident last year, has continued the consultant said, with the number of greenfield projects passing the final investment decision stage in 2018 increasing by 154% compared with 2016 (the low-point of the downturn).
However, continuation of the recovery remains dependent on geopolitics and OPEC decisions, Westwood warned.
Supply-chain conditions remain challenging, with little improvement in the commercial environment for services and equipment.
Operators continue to manage their risk exposure through phased developments and a focus on standardized solutions for subsea equipment.
Among the main conclusions of the report are:
- Over the forecast period, subsea hardware will account for 64% ($97.6 billion) of expenditure, with subsea vessels operations accounting for the remaining 36% ($55.4billion).
- Subsea tree installation is set to grow at a 6% CAGR over the 2019-2023 period led by Petrobras’ investments in the Santos basin and Equinor’s commitments to projects in the Barents Sea and North Sea.
- More than 18,482 km (11,484 mi) of line pipes are set to be installed over the period, amounting to $44.7 billion in both material and installation costs.
- IMR activity looks likely to intensify, with vessel-related IMR activity expenditure estimated at $21 billion during 2019-2023, 25% up on the 2014-2018 period.
- Westwood forecasts more than 387,963 subsea vessel days, a 12% increase on previous estimates, leading to a rise in vessel day rates in the latter years of the forecast period as the vessel supply-demand balance tightens due to low book-to-fleet ratio and a greater number of retired vessels.
11/14/2018
