Global data
In the coming months, Infield Systems will highlight trends and will present data, information, and commentary on key aspects of the subsea market.
To start, we will look at a base fundamental, the number of subsea fields. The number of subsea fields coming onstream has grown at a fairly consistent rate over the past five years, from just under 30 in 2000 to 51 for 2004. The number of fields in prospects to 2010 has grown steadily, leading to the expectation that growth in subsea fields coming onstream will continue through the medium term.
The adjoining chart illustrates changes and increased visibility of subsea fields through the past five years. Each of the data groups shows the corresponding number of fields in prospect that were visible at that time.
Two key points are evident from datasets for subsequent years. First, the short-term view of prospects over 2-3 years is usually too high, with a data ‘bump’ of prospects that don’t proceed on time. Secondly, the longer-term view falls away sharply to create a data ‘droop’ with a limited number of prospects that is loo low. When trying to ascertain the future subsea market and its size and value, we need to consider both of these facts.
Will Rowley
Director of Analytical Services, Infield Systems