Offshore wind round-up: offtake awards, FIDs set for pick-up in 2026

Negative market conditions for offshore wind developments could ease in 2026, according to the latest Global Market Overview report from TGS and 4C.

New activity in 2025 was relatively subdued due to a combination of stalled offshore wind site auctions, delayed final investment decisions (FIDs) and cancelled offtake contracts.

The total of new site awards as 17.2 GW, a 78% drop compared with the 75-GW annual average between 2022 and 2024, with a marked slowdown of activity in Europe. Floating offshore wind represented 5.5 GW of the overall awarded capacity. 

Offtake awards fell to 3.1 GW, all for contracts for fixed-bottom projects offshore France, Ireland and South Korea.

In 2026, however, the consultants expect a recovery with up to 17.6 GW of offtake awards and potentially around 20 GW of site tenders (compared with 17.2 GW in 2025). They also predict FIDS for 11.4 GW of new capacity, with nearly 10 GW entering commercial operation outside China.

Patrick Owen, senior analyst at TGS | 4C, who co-authored the report, said: “As policy frameworks evolve and risk-sharing improves, we expect activity to pick up again from 2026, albeit on a more measured and sustainable footing.”

TGS | 4C now expect 4.1 GW of new floating offshore wind capacity to be installed or developing globally by 2030, rising steeply thereafter as standardization leads to construction cost reductions.

Towards the end of December, TGS started deployment of its first proprietary offshore wind and metocean measurement project in Australia, a one-year campaign in Victoria’s Gippsland region commissioned by High Sea Wind (an Ocean Winds venture.

TGS will record wind, wave, current and environmental data in water depths of around 60 m. Results should support turbine selection, facilities layout, foundations design, environmental assessments, and grid connection planning.

A floating LIDAR buoy is compiling the data via ocean and environmental sensors, with measurements delivered daily through the site evaluation/analytics platform Wind AXIOM.

Elsewhere in the Asia-Pacific region, Vestas has won a 390-MW order for the Shinan-Ui offshore wind project in South Korea’s Jeollanam Province.

This is a development by Shinan-Ui Offshore Wind, a consortium comprising Hanwha Ocean, SK Eternix, KOMIPO (Korea Midland Power), Future Energy Fund, and Hyundai Engineering & Construction. It also marks Vestas’ entry into the South Korean offshore wind sector.

The company will supply 26 V236-15.0 MW turbines and provide support post-installation under a 20-year service agreement. It expects to start delivering turbines in 2027, with commercial operations beginning in 2028.

Ørsted has signed an agreement under which Cathay Life Insurance and its affiliate Cathay Power will acquire a 55 % stake in Ørsted’s 632-MW Greater Changhua 2 wind farm development offshore Taiwan.

The project, 50–60 km from the coast of Changhua County, comprises the 295-MW, operational Greater Changhua 2a, and the 337-MW Greater Changhua 2b, due to be commissioned in Q3 2026.

In addition, Ørsted will perform long-term operations and maintenance from its O&M hub at the Port of Taichung.

Finally, in the German sector of the Baltic Sea, the State Office for Agriculture and Environment in Stralsund, Western Pomerania, has approved Skyborn Renewables’ application for its 976.5-MW Gennaker offshore wind farm development.

FID should occur in summer 2026, followed by a two-year construction period and commissioning in 2028. Skyborn plans to install 63 15-MW class wind turbine generators.

The planned development is 15 km north of the Fischland-Darß-Zingst peninsula, within a designated priority zone for offshore wind energy in the Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania coastal waters.