LONDON — A report commissioned by the Scottish government warns that Scotland will need to "carefully manage" the decline in oil and gas alongside the growth of its new low-carbon sector.
This is necessary to "minimize any negative impacts of the energy transition on society and the economy," the report stated.
The reports also reveals that the offshore sector accounted for £16 billion ($19.24 billion) of northeast Scotland’s economy, equivalent to 9% of total Scottish GDP in 2019.
The government commissioned the report as part of the draft Energy Strategy and Just Transition Plan (ESJTP) consultation process. The initial draft of the strategy had suggested the Northeast should accelerate the decline of oil and gas production, according to the UK industry association Offshore Energies UK (OEUK).
Jenny Stanning, OEUK’s external relations director, said, “All three candidates to be the next First Minister of Scotland should read this report. This new independent analysis shows accelerating the decline of North Sea oil and gas production could increase Scotland’s emissions because we’d simply import more…
“Increasing reliance on imports would be bad for Scottish jobs, the economy and our climate goals, because, as this report shows, imports tend to be associated with a higher carbon footprint. More broadly, this independent analysis shows the Scottish economy is set to lose £11 billion [$13.2 billion] per year under existing Scottish government transition plans. Scotland will be poorer under these plans, and we cannot allow this to happen.”
Stanning claimed that 25,000 jobs in the sector, 98% of which are in the Northeast of Scotland, depend on this.
“We are reviewing this paper in full with our members and look forward to responding to the consultation," Stanning concluded. "We continue to make the case that the Scottish government’s energy strategy must both acknowledge the continuing role of oil and gas in Scotland’s economy as well as our sector’s role in a rapid transition to a low-carbon future.”