FORT COLLINS, Colorado -- Colorado State University's department of Atmospheric Science has reduced its seasonal hurricane count forecast from its early April and late May predictions, but still expects the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season to be more active than the average 1950-2000 season.
The updated forecast estimates that 2007 will have about 8 hurricanes (average is 5.9), 15 named storms (average is 9.6), 75 named storm days (average is 49.1), 35 hurricane days (average is 24.5), 4 intense (Category 3-4-5) hurricanes (average is 2.3), and 10 intense hurricane days (average is 5.0).
The forecast has been reduced because of slightly less favorable storm development conditions in the tropical Atlantic, according to the report. The forecast says sea surface temperature anomalies have cooled across the tropical Atlantic in recent weeks, and there have been several significant dust outbreaks from Africa, signifying a generally stable air mass over the tropical Atlantic. Also, El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions have trended slightly cooler over the past few weeks, the report says.