NOAA predicts busy hurricane season

An “active to extremely active” Atlantic basin hurricane season is predicted for 2010 by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.

Offshore staff

WASHINGTON, D.C. – An “active to extremely active” Atlantic basin hurricane season is predicted for 2010 by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.

For the six months starting June 1, NOAA gives a 70% probability for:
• 14-23 named storms, including
• Eight-14 hurricanes, of which
• Three- seven could be major (111 mph or more winds).

NOAA says this higher than normal prediction comes because the El Niño winds aloft have dissipated, reducing wind shear that reduces storm development, warm Atlantic waters, and the generally higher activity indicated by the tropical multi-decadal signal elements.

“The main uncertainty in this outlook is how much above normal the season will be. Whether or not we approach the high end of the predicted ranges depends partly on whether or not La Niña develops this summer,” says Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “At present we are in a neutral state, but conditions are becoming increasingly favorable for La Niña to develop.”

05/27/2010

More in Regional Reports