'Above average' GoM hurricane count predicted

Offshore staff

FORT COLLINS, Colorado --An 'above-average' Atlantic basin hurricane season for 2010 is the prediction of Colorado State University. The estimate is based on the premise that El Niño will dissipate by summer and that warm tropical Atlantic Ocean surface temperatures will be seen.

The university team predicts 15 named storms between June 1 and Nov. 30, with eight becoming hurricanes, and four of those becoming major hurricanes. Further, the forecast predicts a 44% chance that a major hurricane will make landfall on the US Gulf Coast between the Florida panhandle and Brownsville, Texas.

“Based on our latest forecast, the probability of a major hurricane making landfall along the U.S. coastline is 69% compared with the last-century average of 52%,” William Gray said. “While patterns may change before the start of hurricane season, we believe current conditions warrant concern for an above-average season.”


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