2010 oil price estimate no simple matter

How a variety of factors affecting oil prices will play out in 2010 was addressed yesterday by Adam Sieminsk, chief economist, Deutsche Bank/Global Markets Commodities Research, at the 2009 Deloitte Oil & Gas Conference.

Gene Kliewer,
Technology Editor, Subsea & Seismic


HOUSTON -- How a variety of factors affecting oil prices will play out in 2010 was addressed yesterday by Adam Sieminsk, chief economist, Deutsche Bank/Global Markets Commodities Research, at the 2009 Deloitte Oil & Gas Conference.

Taking all the factors into consideration, Sieminsk predicts a $65/bbl average for 2010 compared to the general analysts’ estimates of $75/bbl.

Following 2009’s decrease in the world economy – the first decrease in more than 50 years of records keeping – Sieminsk said 2010 estimates are in the 3-4% growth range, depending upon the estimate source. He also noted a divergence in the parallel changes of the oil price compared to the value of the US dollar. He said the value of the dollar is rising faster than the price of a barrel of oil at this time.

Looking at the price of oil in dollars versus euros, Sieminsk noted that when the value peaked in the $140/bbl range, the equivalent value in euros never exceeded €75/bbl.

Factors holding down petroleum prices include spare production capacity within OPEC, a predicted increase in non-OPEC production for 2010, a build in crude inventories into 2Q 2010, and soft energy demand coming from a soft economy.

12/10/2009

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