Report: Global oil production to grow steadily thru 2030

Global oil productive capacity will grow through 2030 with no evidence of a peak of supply, according IHS Cambridge Energy Research Associates’ The Future of Global Oil Supply: Understanding the Building Blocks report.

Offshore staff

CAMBRIDGE, Massachusetts -- Global oil productive capacity will grow through 2030 with no evidence of a peak of supply, according IHS Cambridge Energy Research Associates’ The Future of Global Oil Supply: Understanding the Building Blocksreport.

The report, based on analysis of more than 10,000 projects around the globe, predicts that capacity will grow to as much as 115 MMb/d from the current level of 92 MMb/d – a 25% increase. Post-2030 supply could struggle to meet demand, but this would take the form of a decades-long “undulating plateau,” rather than a sharp fall, the report says.

Sixty percent of the examined fields have steady or climbing production levels. When taking into account the production, the global aggregate decline rate of all fields currently in production is estimated to be 4.5%, the study finds.

Key aboveground factors such as global economic growth, the capability of the upstream oil industry, costs, government policies on access to reserves and taxation, the evolution of renewable alternative energy sources, and fossil fuels-related climate change policies will have a major impact on the shape of supply, the report finds.

While the economic recession has also driven a reduction in exploration and production investment, exploration and field upgrades have tended to replace global production of 30 billion new barrels per annum in recent years. Despite recessionary pressures, the first three quarters of 2009 have produced discoveries with collective reserves of more than 8 billion new barrels. This does not include the revisions and extensions important to reserves growth, the report finds.

Multi-billion barrel discoveries, such as those of the subsalt Brazil, as well as those in offshore West Africa and offshore East Africa, continue to emerge. New giant discoveries in Iraq may double the country’s production capacity by 2020, the report finds.

The peaking of global oil demand—rather than scale and deliverability of below ground resources—could have a major impact on the flow of supply, according to the report. IHS CERA’s analysis finds that oil demand has already peaked in developed countries.

The complete report is available for download at www.cera.com

11/17/2009

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