IMA releases floating production forecast
Offshore staff
HOUSTON --International Maritime Associates Inc. says orders will be placed for 119-149 floating production systems over the next five years. IMA says there are 197 floating production systems in operation worldwide with another 62 systems on order. Significantly, there are more than 100 projects in the planning stage that could employ a floating production system.
An IMA report says the current inventory comprises 118 FPSOs, 40 production semisubmersibles, 20 TLPs, 15 spars, and 4 production barges. The systems are producing primarily offshore West Africa, Northern Europe, US Gulf Coast, Brazil, Southeast Asia, China, and Australia/New Zealand. Another 76 floating storage vessels are in service, primarily in Southeast Asia, West Africa, and the North Sea.
With more than a dozen orders over the past four months order backlog of production floaters as of mid-March has risen to 62 units. This is the highest backlog in the history of floating production, the report says.
The backlog, which began climbing in late 2005, has increased more than 75% over the past two years. The current backlog includes 46 FPSOs, eight production semis, two TLPs, three spars, two barges, and a ship-shape FPU.
IMA has identified 109 offshore projects now in the planning stage that potentially require floating production systems. About 40% of these projects are at the bidding or final design stage and the rest are in the concept development or study phase.
"There is a very strong likelihood that 50-75% of these projects will actually materialize into equipment fabrication contracts within the next three to five years, and another large number of floater projects will undoubtedly surface over the next several years that are not currently on the radar screen," says Jim McCaul, head of IMA.
"In the 11 years since IMA has been tracking the production floater market, the fundamentals driving the sector have never been stronger," McCaul says. The expectation that crude will remain at $50 to $60 or higher is drawing capital into the floater sector, including more than $3 billion in speculative investment in a dozen production floaters ordered without field contract, he says.
4/2/2007