SINGAPORE –“Mega-projects” offshore Brazil and Norway will add 3.89 MMb/d of crude oil supply from the Atlantic basin by 2025, predicts Wood Mackenzie.
The analysis notes that most of this oil will be relatively heavy and sweet, giving refineries in Europe and elsewhere an opportunity for feed in the face of refinery expansions in Brazil getting canceled or delayed.
While the US Gulf Coast is a natural fit for presalt crude, says Wood Mac, it will compete with US oil and imports from Canada, Mexico, Venezuela, the Middle East, and West Africa. Europe, however, has limited capacity for processing heavier crudes.
Brazilian presalt crude will compete with Norway’s Johan Sverdrup field after 2020. When Johan Sverdrup production peaks in 2024, total heavy crude supply in northwest Europe will exceed 1 MMb/d, while demand will remain close to the current 600,000 b/d explains Gordon McManus, research director EMEARC refining and oil product markets at Wood Mackenzie.
"As a result, we believe over 1 MMb/d of presalt crude will flow to Asia by 2025," concludes McManus.