Offshore staff

The world market for pumps will grow from just under $30 billion this year to $49 billion by 2016. This latest forecast from the McIlvaine Co., Northfield, Illinois, is included in the continually updated online, Pumps: World Markets.

While it estimates world GDP will grow 4% / yr during the next 10 years, the pump market will grow at 5% / yr. This is despite growth of only 1-2% / yr in some regions and sectors such as European basic industry (steel, chemicals, pulp and paper).

McIlvaine bases its forecast on the following major drivers: new energy sources, urbanization of Asia, and the investment in water infrastructure.

Pumps play an important role in oil and gas production, refining, and power generation. The scarcity of oil and gas is leading to investments in substitute fuels. The investment in pumps required for new tar sands plants in Alberta will exceed $50 million/yr. The synthetic fuels program, including coal liquefaction as well as tar sands and oil shale, will boost pump sales by hundreds of millions of dollars/yr.

The use of LNG to replace conventional gas will result in pump investments at the liquefaction sites, on the tankers delivering the liquefied gas, and at the regasification terminals.

There is a boom in coal-fired power plant construction and that calls for a variety of pumps including high pressure services in the steam cycle, water and wastewater, and for scrubbers required to capture the SO2. China and the U.S. will be the biggest purchasers.

Ethanol facilities require pumps to deliver the water, and process the corn or sugar cane into fuel. Hundreds of these plants are predicted for the next decade.

The urbanization of Asia involves the relocation of more than one billion people from the farms to the cities. This will create a need for infrastructure including delivery of drinking water, and removal and treatment of wastewater. Rapid growth of the pump market in Asia will also be aided by large investments in pulp and paper, chemical, steel, and other basic industries.

The most important factor in the growth of the pump industry will be the increasing demand for decreasing supplies of uncontaminated water. Remediation of contaminated ground water, desalination of seawater, and other treatment processes increasingly will be needed. Asia has less available water per capita than other continents and also will have a more rapidly increasing demand for delivery and treatment. Therefore, almost half the investment in pumps for water-related applications will come from Asia.

6/28/06