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As a result of the current market downturn, several planned capital intensive deepwater developments have witnessed delays in recent months. Capex spend in water depths of 500 m (1,640 ft) and greater is expected to decline throughout the remainder of 2015 and 2016. Infield Systems forecasts the largest decline in water depths of between 1,000 and 1,499 m (3,281 and 4,918 ft) as a result of a decrease in spend offshore Angola, Brazil, the Gulf of Mexico (GoM), and Malaysia. From 2017 onward, however, Infield Systems expects to see sustained growth in deepwater development expenditure; with prospects in ultra-deepwaters (>1,499 m) forecast to undergo the largest CAGR (20%) between 2016 and 2020. While Brazil, the GoM, and Angola are expected to comprise the largest share of deepwater capex demand during the next five years, emerging deepwater hubs, such as Mozambique and the Eastern Mediterranean are also expected to undergo significant investment over the remainder of the decade.
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Offshore Mozambique, Infield Systems expects for a CAGR of 89% between 2016 and 2020 in deepwater expenditure demand. Prospects within the Rovuma offshore Areas 1 and 4 drive forecast demand, with Anadarko, Eni, and recent entrant CNPC expected to lead development. Anadarko is expected to hold the largest share of deepwater expenditure demand as a result of its development on the Prosperidade complex, while Eni/CNPC-operated prospects within Area 4, such as Coral, Mamba North, and Mamba South fields are also expected to require significant investment.

–George Griffiths, Senior Energy Researcher, Infield Systems

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