Exploration and production spend is back on trend, forecast to post consecutive yearly increases since the drop off in 2009. Driven by improving market fundamentals and recovering economies, much of the forecast spend – offshore – will be directed to regions where industry’s technological limitations and geopolitical endurance will be tested.
Meanwhile, the shift to deepwater continues, led by Brazil, West Africa, and Australia. Spending in floating production and subsea systems is estimated to increase as a result. Infield Systems’ five-year forecast calls for $74 billion in development capex for floating production systems, a 90% increase from the previous forecast period. Development capex for subsea systems, Infield predicts, is expected to increase 49% from the previous five-year period to $74 billon.
The International Energy Agency estimates that deepwater production will increase from 6% to 9% of total oil and from 22% to 29% of offshore supplies, while adding 2.8 MMb/d, by 2015.
Headlines for 2011
A number of important story lines to keep an eye on this year include the continuing rollout of new findings, operational mandates, lessons learned, and the pace (or lack thereof) of approving deepwater drilling permits in the Gulf of Mexico; the development of Brazil’s pre-salt reserves; the potential emergence of another rig building boom; and new technological advances in the design and deployment of floating liquefied natural gas facilities; among others. Despite the persistent uncertainty associated with deepwater drilling in the Gulf, major capital development projects are moving forward. Recent examples are Chevron’s $4-billion Big Foot and $7.5-billon Jack/St. Malo, and Shell’s Mars B.
Offshore automation solutions
Beginning in this issue, it is my pleasure to introduce our new editorial column – “Offshore Automation Solutions.” In this first edition,Larry O’Brien, research director, ARC Advisory Group, discusses the elements and application of an ideal procedural automation strategy; the three primary categories of operational procedures: manual, prompted, and automated; and procedural automation to reduce the startup and shutdown of offshore platforms. His full report begins on page 32.
In addition to the latest technological applications, trends, and analysis, stay withOffshore throughout 2011 for complete coverage of our international conferences. The lineup includes:
- Offshore West Africa conference & exhibition – March 15-17, Accra, Ghana (www.offshorewestafrica.com)
- Offshore Asia conference & exhibition – March 29-31, Singapore (www.offshoreasiaevent.com)
- Offshore India conference & exhibition – Sept. 14-16, Mumbai (www.offshoreoilindia.com)
- Deep Offshore Technology International conference & exhibition – Oct. 11-13, New Orleans (www.deepoffshoretechnology.com).
To respond to articles in Offshore, or to offer articles for publication, contact the editor by email ([email protected]).
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