OTC 2017: DNV GL outlines new approach to risk assessment
DNV GL has published a position paper at OTC, showing how more dynamic risk assessments can provide improved and real-time decision support during offshore operations.
Static quantitative risk assessment (QRA) reports are widely used to evaluate the safety of offshore oil and gas activities and systems. However, in operation, the risk level changes, based on factors such as degradation of safety-critical barriers, altered production conditions, and modifications to asset.
In these cases, DNV GL argues, there must be easy access to updated risk results and the capability to obtain quick real-time answers as new questions arise.
Also, the rise of digitalization in the oil and gas industry, with its attendant impact on efficiencies and cost reductions, means that operators are increasingly focusing on gaining insights from “big data” from sensors. The challenge is to make sense of the data to improve risk management.
This requires condition monitoring data to be put into context with a risk model, to provide insights on how changes impact the risk.
DNV GL researchers’ position paper sets out concepts for developing dynamic and real-time risk assessment methods and tools.
Frank Børre Pedersen, group technology and research, DNV GL, said: “Risk models are just approximations of real life. In order to provide relevant and timely decision support, models need to keep track with current conditions and context. Managing the safety of complex dynamic systems requires dynamic risk assessment.”
The latter can be implemented in (near) real-time tools to provide an updated risk picture and enhance the ability to learn from experience and adapt to new conditions.
However, it is also essential to monitor any deviations from the assumptions made in the risk assessment. And supporting efficient risk management, the researchers argue, also involves making the results accessible and suited to support decisions in operation, for instance via interactive delivery platforms.
DNV GL’s MyQRA is a new online tool that harnesses risk information. It is designed to unlock detailed information from QRA studies through filtering, drill-down functionalities and 3D visualizations, helping technical and non-technical professionals to improve their understanding of hazards and take decisions more effectively.
The tool is also said to improve risk communication across multiple stakeholders in a project or asset, at each stage of its lifecycle.
DNV GL is exhibiting at booth #4253.