ABERDEEN, UK –Infield Systems’ ninth Global Perspectives Deep and Ultra-deepwater Market Report to 2017 sees capex in those depths to grow over the next five years.
The forecast is for water depths of 500 m (1,640 ft) and more.
Demand is pushing exploration further offshore into harsher and deeper waters, says Infield. Deepwater reserve additions are expected to remain a marginal proportion of overall global production; rising from a 7% cumulative share of global reserves in 2012 to 10% by 2017. In capex terms, the deepwater market, which requires higher capital expenditure than its shallow water counterparts, is expected to rise from a 38% share in 2012 to a 53% share of global offshore capex by 2017.
Even with attention centered on the “Deepwater Triangle” of Brazil, West Africa, and the Gulf of Mexico, Infield sees support coming from less traditional deepwater arenas as Southeast Asia, Australasia, and Europe. Substantial growth is also predicted for the Middle East and Caspian.
Brazil is expected to lead the deepwater market with spending on the Lula and Franco developments.
The GoM deepwater action will be led by Shell, with a 24% market share of capex including the ultra-deepwater development atStones and Appomattox.
While West Africa will continue to lead the continent, deepwater activity should increase offshore East Africa, particularly theProsperidade complex offshore Mozambique.
The key fields expected to go on production through 2017 offshore Asia, includeLiwan off China, Shell’s Gumusut-Kakap off Malaysia, and Chevron’s Gendalo-Genhem offshore Indonesia. New developments off Brunei, Myanmar, and Sri Lanka are expected to emerge toward the end of the forecast.
TheAasta Hensteen deepwater field offshore Europe is expected to be the third most capital intensive project developed globally during the forecast period. That will give Statoil the largest market share, with other capex coming from Chevron at Rosebank and Gazprom on the South Stream project.
Deepwater offshore Northwestern Australia has seen capex from Chevron and ExxonMobil at Greater Gorgon, and Exxon is expected to continue spending on Jansz andScarborough.
The Middle East is the smallest market for deepwater capex. Even so, Noble Energy gas developments offshore Israel and BP atShah Deniz off Azerbaijan will see considerable capex.