OGJ Executive Reports: Quantitative Management Systems

Following is a description of a set of special reports that present powerful tools for decision making in the petroleum and energy industry. These reports are statistical management tools for risk analysis and negotiation. These reports are now available through the OGJ Online Research Center.

All of the reports are by David Wood, a recognized worldwide expert specializing in the integration of technical and economic evaluation with management and acquisition strategy.

The author
David Wood is an exploration and production consultant specializing in the integration of technical and economic evaluation with management and acquisitions strategy. He is a director of E&P management courses with the College of Petroleum Studies (Oxford, UK).

After receiving a PhD in geochemistry from Imperial College in London, Wood conducted deep sea drilling research and in the early 1980s worked with Phillips Petroleum Co. and Amoco Corp. on E&P projects in Africa and Europe. From 1987 to 1993 he managed several independent Canadian E&P companies (Lundin Group) in senior corporate and technical roles, working in South America, the Middle East, and Far East from bases in Colombia and Dubai. From 1993 to 1998 he acquired and managed a portfolio of onshore UK and North Sea companies and assets as managing director for Candecca Resources Ltd. His e-mail address is woodda@compuserve.com.

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Phone 1.800.752.9764 or 1.918.831.9421.
Fax 1.877.218.1348 or 1.918.831.9555.
E-mail: sales@pennwell.com

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This elaborately linked electronic package describes a comprehensive approach to portfolio modeling and risk assessment and provides a tool for putting the concepts to work. It includes:

• A main article defining a disciplined system for modeling and managing exploration and production projects and their risks.
• Separate, detailed elaborations, with links from the main article, on systems for assessing project, business, fiscal, and political risks.
• An interactive workbook to help apply the system to real projects.
• Copies of Oil & Gas Journal articles by the author on these and related subjects.
• Color figures and tables to illustrate the concepts and show how they relate to one another.

Format: PDF articles and interactive table of contents plus Excel workbook available as a package in a downloadable Zip file or on CD-ROM.

Cost: $399.00 (US) plus shipping and handling for printed product.

Product number: OGJER14

This comprehensive report gives decision-makers a series of tools for evaluating oil and gas assets and assessing risks in property transactions. The author, a consultant who has worked in the oil and gas industry since the early 1980s, describes quantitative techniques useful for valuation and in-depth economic analysis of oil and gas projects and corporate ventures. Among the subjects covered:

• Analyzing input and output variables and distributions.
• How probabilistic techniques incorporate and quantify risks associated with a range of future uncertainties.
• How deterministic techniques provide sensitivity analysis of economic outcomes related to a range of input assumptions.
• Using chance and decision trees with deterministic techniques.
• Applying the techniques of Monte Carlo simulation.
• Selecting distribution types to be applied to input variables in building probabilistic models.
• Quantifying downside risk as an aid to decision-making.
• Determining mean downside risk to define the efficient frontier of a portfolio.
• Assessing statistical confidence levels.
• Systematically quantifying risked reserves.
• Quantifying upside and downside risks with probabilistic valuation techniques from the perspectives of sellers, purchasers or borrowers, and lenders in transactions involving oil and gas assets.

Format:

Electronic files with all text, figures and tables
OR
Print: 85 (8½ x 11- inch) softbound pages with 40 color figures and tables.

Cost: $299.00 (US) plus shipping and handling for printed product.

Product number: OGJER10

This comprehensive report tells how to improve analysis of an exploration and production investment portfolio with modern, quantitative risk-management techniques. The author, a consultant who has worked in the oil and gas industry since the early 1980s, provides techniques for combining project and economic risk evaluations to produce realistic values for E&P investment portfolios. He not only describes the techniques but also shows how best to apply them under real-world conditions.

Topics included in the report:

• Three stages of risk.
• Building portfolio simulation models that link to corporate strategy.
• An example portfolio of oil and gas assets.
• Analyzing the example portfolio of projects on a pretax basis.
• Defining the pretax efficient frontier and individual project scrutiny.
• Integrating the portfolio with the corporate financial model.
• Analyzing the example portfolio of projects on a post-tax corporate basis.
• Establishing a corporate post-tax efficient frontier.

Format:

Electronic files with all text, figures and tables
OR
Print: 50 (8½ x 11-inch) softbound pages with 21 color figures and tables.

Cost: $299.00 (US) plus shipping and handling for printed product.

Product number: OGJER11

The author introduces the PRODUCTIVE Negotiation Assessment Method, a systematic and rigorous evaluation process that enables negotiators to focus on key issues or identify and improve areas where they have not performed best in the past. Users can apply the method to isolated negotiations or the entire negotiation functions of departments or companies. Subjects covered in this report include:

• How the PRODUCTIVE Negotiation Assessment Method works.
• How to apply the method before, during, and after negotiations.
• Using numerical scoring systems to evaluation negotiations.
• Tabulating and graphically displaying evaluation scores.
• Categorizing negotiation issues within the PRODUCTIVE framework.
• Systematically assessing negotiation issues.

Format:

Electronic files with all text, figures and tables
OR
Print: 20 (8½ x 11-inch) softbound pages with 6 color figures and tables.

Cost: $99.00 (US) plus shipping and handling for printed productg.

Product number: OGJER12

In this well-illustrated report, the author shows how simulation techniques can be used to their maximum potential in project planning, evaluation, and risk-management. In valuable detail, he shows how to apply statistical techniques involving simulation to planning and management. Topics include:

• Integrating deterministic and probabilistic techniques in simulation.
• Project network analysis.
• Applying probabilistic simulation models to critical path project management.
• The Monte Carlo simulation technique.
• Management and interpretation of data distribution.
• Applying the techniques to a hypothetical drilling and development project.
• Applying the techniques to a hypothetical chemical plant project.

Format:

Electronic files with all text, figures and tables
OR
Print: 50 (8½ x 11 - inch) softbound pages with 24 color figures and tables.

Cost: $199.00 (US) plus shipping and handling for printed product.

Product number: OGJER13