Commentary: We’ll never have an energy transition

By Mark P. Mills, National Center for Energy Analytics

There’s a problem with the term, the very idea, of an “energy transition.” It’s not the disputable claim that one is needed. The problem is with the claim, even conviction, that there’s some kind of natural, inevitable migration from “old” energy, i.e., fossil fuels, to “new” energy. The reality is that there’s never been an energy transition, nor do data show that one is underway.

Consider the conclusion based on the evidence of recent history seen in J. P. Morgan’s annual energy review, “after $9 trillion globally over the last decade spent on wind, solar, electric vehicles, energy storage, electrified heat and power grids, the renewable transition is still a linear one; the renewable share of final energy consumption is slowly advancing at 0.3%–0.6% per year.” Such an anemic “advance” is not the hallmark of some “unstoppable” juggernaut. Hence, J.P. Morgan’s bottom line: “Growth in fossil fuel consumption is slowing but no clear sign of a peak on a global basis.” That is to say, no “energy transition” is in sight. For the transitionists, such anemic progress is just proof that we need to try harder, never mind whether political appetites exist for more inflationary spending, or more intrusive energy diktats. 

The transition narrative is easily summarized as a conviction that the march of technology means that ancient energy sources are inevitably being replaced by newer ones. Favorite analogies include the tech transitions from landline-to-cellphone, or horses-to-cars. But such analogies are category errors. Technological progress more often changes, rather than replaces, how we access, move, and manipulate materials. We still use ancient materials like wood, stone, concrete, and glass—and at far greater scale than any time in history. It turns out that the same is true for all forms of energy (with one minor exception, which we’ll get to).

Humanity has used the same six primary energy sources for millennia: grains, animal fats, wood, water, wind, and fossil fuels. The world today uses more of all of those than ever. 

Yes, the share of energy supplied by these sources is lower. But that’s not what the transitionists mean. Consider some history to illustrate the fatuousness of the idea of any energy transition having eliminated the use of any ancient energy source.

Humans have long used grains to fuel the biological “machines” of civilization, various beasts of burden—including, tragically, slave labor—in farming, industry, and transportation. Sadly, civilization hasn’t even transitioned away from slavery if the Global Slavery Index is correct; more people are in forced labor now than any time in history. Likewise today’s world today uses more grain-fueled “working animals” than ever—some 200 million. Even the US tonnage of grain used for transportation is now 300% greater than during America’s peak horse era because of the grain-ethanol mandate for gasoline.

Since ancient times, humans have used the fat from slaughtered animals rendered as oils or tallow for illumination. Today, global biofuel production (biodiesel) is some 1,000 times greater than two centuries ago. While that’s now dominated by plant oils, roughly 100 times more animal fats are now used for fuel versus the peak whale-harvesting era. Abandoning whale oil is history’s single exception to the no-energy-transitions rule.

Whales were saved by chemical science, circa 1840, with the invention of coal-to-kerosene synthesis (before the oil era began). That inefficient early process required just one ton of coal to yield as much oil as harvesting three tons of whales, a staggering cost advantage that collapsed the value of whale harvesting.

As for wood, the amount burned for energy today is greater than at any time in history. Globally, wood supplies twice as much energy as do all the world’s solar and wind machines combined. Even in the US, wood for fuel use is greater now than a century ago. A wood transition? Not yet.

The use of watermills for industrial grinding of grains dates to ancient Greece and soared during the Middle Ages with an estimated 500,000 watermills in Europe. That was hardly peak waterpower. Global hydro dams today produce roughly 500 times more energy.

Windmills, similarly, didn’t peak in the past when there were an estimated 200,000 of them in the Middle Ages, as well as tens of thousands of wind-powered vessels, a.k.a. sailing ships, by the nineteenth century. Global wind turbines today now harvest over 50-fold more energy. 

Finally, there are the reviled fossil fuels. Coal use dates to the Paleolithic era and the ancients used tars and pitch for heat and lighting (and warfighting). But, despite epic expansions in all the above itemized fuel sources, hydrocarbons now supply over 80% of all global needs. 

The world, it should by now be obvious, uses far more coal, oil, and natural gas than at any time in history, as well as more of every kind of energy deployed since the dawn of civilization (again, with the notable exceptions of whale oil). 

There’s never been an energy transition.

Missing from this history is the relatively recent addition of atomic phenomena: energy released splitting an atom’s nucleus (1939) and from the photoelectric effect using the atom’s orbital electrons (1954). Count on both those sources seeing extraordinary expansion in the coming decades and centuries too – and continuing the pattern of additions, not transitions. 

Editor's note: Mark P. Mills is the founder and executive director of the National Center for Energy Analytics, and a contributing editor to the City Journal where this essay originally appeared in longer form.