Geosciences

What was left out of the climate debate

What has struck this geoscientist so intensely about the global climate debates and Kyoto Treaty wrangling is the lack of interest (or willful blindness) in geologic history. Very few participants have placed climate change in its proper perspective. Climate is part of the Earth's dynamic process of change. Different elemental forces are introduced, balanced, modified, and moderated in the atmosphere and oceans over very long time periods.

Environmental pundits, researchers, and politicians appear to desire static climate. It never has existed, nor will it ever exist. They also fail to recognize the historical adaptability of humanity to adjust to climate changes.

The forces released during the petroleum age have periodicity longer than a human lifespan. Since economic development (and requisite use of energy minerals) will not stop, Earth's human population will have to adapt to any climate change, regardless of source.

To provide the necessary balance and include Earth's history in the climate debate, the American Association of Petroleum Geologists produced AAPG Study #47, Geological Perspectives of Global Climate Change. This is an excellent text on global climate change through geologic time. Of importance is a diagram (page 3 of Study #47) that places global climate drivers in their relative order of importance and effectiveness over time. These are the major climate drivers by class and impact:

• First order: Solar luminosity, solar system geometry, and greenhouse atmosphere. These drivers can change temperatures by 23-28° C, and act with a 1-3 billion year periodicity.
• Second order: Global distribution of continents. Continent location can modify temperatures 14-18° C, and have an effect over a period of 2-100 million years.
• Third order: Orbital variability, solar variability, large-scale oceanographic oscillations, and long ocean tide cycles. These drivers create 9-11° C temperature changes over 10,000-300,000 year periods.
• Fourth order: Solar flares, smaller orbital cycles, short ocean tide cycles, volcanoes, weathering, regional tectonics, El Niño, La Niña oscilations, meteorite impacts, and human intervention (CO₂, CH4). These shorter cycle drivers alter temperature from 1-5° C and operate over 4-100 year cycles.

In the larger scheme of forces, human climatic affects are minimal, both in scope and period. With some degree of human arrogance, the current debate has evolved by focusing on one minor driver CO₂ without considering other gases.

The more important "greenhouse" gas is water vapor. Focusing on CO₂ is not significant, when the apparent problem is the buildup of heat from all sources in the atmospheric system. Several graphs in the text (page 341) put global temperature in perspective. In terms of geological history and the highest order of impacts, Earth is in a relatively cool period.

Most of the hue and cry about the 0.5° C rise in Earth's temperature over the past 100 years is directed to reducing the quantity of energy minerals used - specifically, those that release CO₂. The oil, coal, and uranium energy minerals presently in place are present because of geologic forces active millions of years ago.

Numerous doomsday scenarios concerning violent weather and tides arise from the models of heat added to the atmosphere. It is easy to forget that the release of heat and gases into the atmosphere assists Earth's plant life by stimulating growth and development. We should take advantage of this effect and use plant life to absorb the "excess" carbon dioxide, producing useful products for human beings to enjoy.

Wars, famine, and disease have a more immediate effect on the world's population than climate change. Fortunately, climate change happens slowly in human terms, so people have sufficient time to adapt to climate changes.

EXPLORATION